Simon Locke, CEO of CommunicationsMatch™ and Vice President of the Foreign Press Association of the U.S.

China’s alliance with Russia is not a marriage of convenience without consequence. It is the bedrock of Russia’s ability to wage war in Ukraine and the ideological alignment of two nuclear armed world powers. 

President Xi clearly knew Russia’s intentions, gave it the reassurances needed to move military forces from the Chinese border to be used against Ukraine, continues to provide propaganda support for the war, and according to reports, asked for the invasion to be delayed until after the Olympics’ closing ceremony.  

China’s actions are subject to growing scrutiny in Washington. 

China will not be alone in the spotlight. Given Russia’s flagrant attack on a sovereign country and democracy, it is disheartening that not all of the world largest ‘democracies’ are forcefully standing against Russia and China’s complicity. India, Brazil, Nigeria and Indonesia, are just some of the countries, that are no shows.          

Xi’s ‘belt and road’ policy is paying dividends right now in exactly the way it was planned. China’s “belt” is a whip. And, its roads are taking countries to nowhere other than submission. 

Chickens are coming home to roost. As the West is learning the hard way, the long slippery slope of appeasement, looking the other way when money, oil or sport are involved, selective engagement with the world, and the failure to address the disinformation and propaganda spread through social media, all have consequences.           

It may well be that there’s a certain sang-froid in some countries. A sense that Europe may be deserving of what it gets. While some of this may be deserved, the real takeaway should be that, for the most part, the West has thrown off its timidity and is confronting not just a bully, but a global threat willing to destroy Ukraine, its infrastructure, its men, women and children to re-build an empire. 

Americans are taking action and this matters. I wrote about this last week. Not only are we supporting Ukraine on social media, we are raising money, creating care packages and boycotting Russian goods. American corporations have taken notice and have taken unprecedented steps to rapidly close down operations in Russia, exit partnerships and express solidarity with Ukraine.       

Just when we might have believed the threat of global conflict was dead, we are reminded that it is very much alive. In Russia’s case, Putin has taken the brazen strong-man approach of Hitler’s Nazi Germany: Invasion. Its assault of democracy is being met by unified resistance in Ukraine and in the U.S.      

Xi’s China has hitherto taken a different approach, one that is now all too apparent – the hammer of economic subservience. If your economy is dependent on China, you are expected to toe China’s line. As we are seeing, the Russia-China axis now means countries with relationships with China need to toe the Russia line, too – no matter how unwilling or uncomfortable.    

With the images of the bombing of hospitals and civilians reminding us everyday of Russia’s aggression, China may be hoping that it will not be called to account and that public opinion will not start to focus on its role in this existential crisis. Like Russia, China too is likely to find that it has miscalculated. Unless it decides to play a role in stopping the war, the attention given to its culpability will grow.       

The West has learned a very hard lesson from its own complicity and failures with Putin’s Russia. Xi’s continued support of Russia is ideological, but also based on the lack of willingness to call out China by those, including the U.S., that have become its economic dependents. This is unlikely to remain the case.  

In fact, it is highly likely that China will start to see a significant backlash, along with other countries that have so far proved unwilling to stand up for what is right against might. While the response to China’s actions may not be as strong or as immediate as they have been with Russia, over time, they will be consequential.  

Discussions will already be taking place in boardrooms as they are in government about what to do about China. Changing public opinion is likely to force this issue. Xi has shown his true color. Imperial red.   

Given the size of its economy and power, the decisions facing companies and consumers when it comes to China will potentially be far more challenging than for Russia. But at this moment of the rapid realignment of the global order, choices will have to be made. Companies and communicators need to be laser-focused on how they will respond.                     

Europe and America have been reminded that when you make a deal with the devil, you risk losing your souls.