Unlike the TV political pundits who have been saying that this is the closest presidential election since, well, forever, – it isn’t. Remember the 2000 election between Al Gore and George W. Bush?

I will, however, admit that unlike the self-anointed political experts on TV, I don’t know everything, (although I might be wrong about that). 

I’ll admit that I don’t know which party will win control of the House. I will also admit that I don’t know which party will win control of the Senate. 

But one thing I am 100% certain of is who will become president of the United States. It will either be Vice President Kamala Harris or former President Donald Trump. And I’m willing to bet my immense fortune against a week old cup of coffee that I am right. For readers who want to take that bet, if I win, I prefer Maxwell House.

Here’s why I am certain that Kamala Harris will win

She is a much more appealing candidate than Trump. Voters are tired of Trump’s continuous lying and his saying that he might not accept the results of the election if he loses. Voters don’t want as president a convicted felon. Harris’selection of Tim Walz was a political master stroke. He was able to convince enough voters to abandon their GOP ties and to vote Democratic, and voters did not think Trump’s dance routine was good enough to have him appear on Dancing with the Stars.

Here’s why I am certain that Donald Trump will win

It isn’t because I thought he ran a good campaign. In fact, I thought he ran a terrible campaign, but Kamala Harris ran a worse one. Both Trump and Harris have one thing in common: They are evasive in answering reporter’s questions, but people have been conditioned to accept Trump’s doing so because he has been dodging reporter’s questions since 2015. Trump has been riding the immigrant horse since he initially announced his candidacy and it has become an important issue for voters. Conversely, Harris’ messaging is all over the map, making it difficult for voters to believe what she really stands for. She should have chosen a few message points, in my opinion, abortion, health care and what happened on Jan. 6, and kept repeating them throughout the campaign. Also, as I wrote on this website some time ago, she made a near fatal mistake, which as I write this is turning out to be fatal, according to recent polls, by selecting Tim Walz as her running mate, instead of North Carolina’s Roy Cooper or Pennsylvania’s Joshua Shapiro, both governors of states that could have delivered more Electoral College votes than Gov. Walz of Minnesota.

During the reaming days before Election Day, the TV pundits will be all over the political map explaining why Ms. Harris or Mr. Trump will win. But you can ignore them, because as Yogi Berra, the baseball philosopher once said, or is alleged to have said, “It’s ain’t over ‘till it’s over."

As of today, only I can say for certainty who will be elected: It will be either Ms. Harris or Mr. Trump. And I don’t need pundits or polling trends to tell me that.

The bottom line why I think Mr. Trump will win is because voters know him for many years. The bottom line why I think Ms. Harris will win is because voters know Mr. Trump for many years. 

Message for people in our business

Once you begin engaging with journalists, who are the voters about your program, they might not agree with your evaluation of it. So always be prepared to incorporate mid-course corrections. And if early results of your program look good, wait until the program plays out before celebrating. Remember how Kamala Harris’ five point lead evaporated in the weeks following her nomination?