Simon Erskine Locke, Founder & CEO of CommunicationsMatchTM  

There’s one certainty with the coronavirus pandemic: This too shall pass.  

Uncertainties are legion. When will this all be over, how will I get through it, what will be the damage to my 401(k), will I have a job, will I be able to buy toilet paper?

Uncertainty is as deeply troubling to us as human beings as it is to financial markets. This is not a superficial thing. Uncertainty impacts us at a deep psychological level. Certainty provides anchors in our lives and minds.  

If I know something, I can plan. If I know something, I don’t have to think about all the possible permutations of what might happen.  

Uncertainty drives fear. If we don’t know if toilet paper will be available, we go into panic buying mode. All we can think about is how we are going to get it. It is all too easy to lose perspective. 

As I have written in the past, when we chase scarcity we go into tunnels and risk making poor choices, with real consequences for us, for clients, and society. (Read: Why We Make Bad Decisions & How We Can Make Better Ones)

It should be no surprise that, given the choice of the turmoil of not knowing and the calm of certainty, we gravitate to those who project certainty – even when it is misplaced.  

And, since others look for confidence, it’s tempting for leaders to respond accordingly. (Read: The Confidence Paradox)

Doctors offer a great example of this conundrum. When we go to the doctor, we look for answers. If a doctor truthfully states that the symptoms are complex, it will take time to understand them, and medication may or may not work, this is likely something a patient doesn’t want to hear. From the patient’s perspective, they want an expert to tell them what’s wrong and give them the pills to cure it.  

But there’s a rub here for leaders and communicators. When we invest confidence in others and they are wrong, we feel deceived. We turn on them, lash out and seek someone more deserving of our trust. This is the downside of certainty.         

Over the last few weeks, the response to the crisis from individuals, the communications industry, leaders in business and politics has demonstrated a range of behaviors that are consistent with past crises.   

This is not the first time panic buying has been a response, that financial markets have been whipsawed as Washington negotiates bailouts, that leaders have projected irrational confidence or calmness, and that some are acting as if the world is ending. It’s not the first time that people have sought to exploit a crisis for opportunity or risen to the occasion to help others.  

We are living the crisis playbook with the full range of human responses to the current pandemic. We should not expect anything less.

For leaders, striking the right balance between inspiring confidence while reflecting the uncertainty of the situation we find ourselves in, is a challenge. No matter how good, messages will not resonate with all.  

Since all of us would prefer certainty, we should not be surprised when many chose to ignore inconvenient facts and realities. This is not necessarily a conscious choice. When we frame the world through a polarized lens, we only see what we want.

As communicators and leaders, it is hard, in the words of Rudyard Kipling, to “keep your head when all around are losing theirs.” But, we would do well to keep in mind something David Brooks wrote recently in a New York Times opinion article on the pandemic:

“I’m beginning to appreciate the wisdom that cancer patients share: We just can’t know. Don’t expect life to be predictable or fair. Don’t try to tame the situation with some feel-good lie or confident prediction. Embrace the uncertainty of this whole life-or-death deal.

There’s a weird clarity that comes with that embrace. There is a humility that comes with realizing you’re not the glorious plans you made for your life. When the plans are upset, there’s a quieter and better you beneath them.”

As leaders, recognizing both what we know and don’t know as well as the behavioral drivers around certainty, is a powerful starting place for clear-eyed approaches to communications and business strategy that will get us and our teams through this crisis. 

While it may be tempting to project a high level of confidence in expected outcomes others may seek, sticking to the facts, and being clear about what is unknown, is key to building trust and avoiding the pitfalls of overconfidence.   

Perhaps most important, embracing uncertainty is a foundation for the mental calmness required for us to be the rock that others will rely on to get through the crisis.         

---

CommunicationsMatch offers communications & PR agency search tools and resources that help companies find, shortlist, and hire agencies, consultants and freelancers. Prior to founding CommunicationsMatch, Locke held senior corporate communications roles at Prudential Financial, Morgan Stanley and Deutsche Bank and founded communications consultancies.