America’s 28-Day Upheaval Is Just the Beginning as Turmoil Tightens Its Grip
It’s too much to compare what we are going through to the Zombie apocalypse movie “28 Days Later,” but the world has changed.
While some are celebrating, there are many others on both sides of the aisle deeply concerned at the chaotic dismemberment of government, alliances and U.S. values.
The daze of executive orders to cut jobs, eliminate the department of education, drill-baby-drill, take the U.S. out of the World Health Organization, shut down USAID, withdraw from the Paris climate agreement, and ongoing attacks on DEI and trans people, should not be a surprise. The rapprochement with Vladimir Putin – the invader of Ukraine, scourge of democracy, and serial committer of war crimes – should also not have been unexpected.
Over the past 28 plus days, America as we knew it has been turned upside down, and if you are a Trump supporter that may not be a bad thing. But one thing is already clear, not all signed up for the chainsaw indiscriminately cutting through the government and world order.
The next 28 days will be even more consequential. Inflation is up and the stock market is marginally down at the time of writing. Unemployment is likely to rise. Consumer confidence just experienced its most significant drop since August 2021. Add to this, the price of eggs is approaching that of gold (an exaggeration I know, but not an unspoken statement in supermarkets across the country). All this is leading to fractious town hall meetings with voters. A second Gilded Age is clearly not on the immediate horizon.
During this time of upheaval, it’s already becoming clearer that clients are hunkering down and, in some cases, cutting spending. The direct and implicit threats to business from the U.S. government to toe the ideological line are sending a chill wind across the country and the communications industry. Since communicating is currently seen as a risk, flat or lower budgets should not be an unexpected outcome.
It is too early to reach a definitive verdict on what comes next. The Trump faithful will want to see green shoots once the forest is cleared. For the wealthiest Americans, tax cuts will be welcome. For the working and middle-class, improvements in kitchen table economics will have a strong impact on outlook and confidence.
But, continued high egg prices, rising inflation, market volatility, and the impact of budget cuts on benefits, services, and employment will erode confidence and drive buyer’s remorse. To paraphrase Ronald Reagan, a recession is when your neighbor loses his job; a depression is when you lose yours. Today few in America will not know people who have been directly impacted by the cuts in Washington and around the country. A growing number have been directly impacted.
The coming weeks will be of critical importance to a better understanding of the direction of the economy and the PR industry’s outlook for 2025.
It is important not to overstate the downside risks to the economy versus the potential for economic benefits of cost-cutting over time. Even during the great depression in the 1930s, 75% of the American workforce was still working. One way or another, business will continue, programs will be completed, and PR support will be needed.
Although PR industry revenues have proved resilient during other recent periods of dramatic economic change, even small cuts may have a significant knock-on effect on budgets and employment. If a more positive outlook for business and consumers emerges from the current maelstrom, there will be new opportunities.
Will we be able to call the definitive direction we are headed in a month? No. Will we have a far clearer sense of what comes next? In my view, the answer is, absolutely.
