Knowing Your Risk in the COVID-19 Pandemic

As of last month, half of American adults have been at least partially vaccinated against COVID-19.  While this number is widely celebrated, it may not be enough to end the pandemic.

Herd immunity requires 70% to 85% of a population to be vaccinated.  Vaccine hesitancy in the US has led to a drop-off in demand, meaning not as many new people are getting the necessary shots.  Even if the US were on track to achieve herd immunity in the near future, their efforts may be undermined by the state of the world’s vaccination effort.  Most of the continent of Africa, along with certain parts of Eastern Europe, Asia, and Latin America, are not on track to achieve herd-immunity levels of vaccination until 2023.  Meanwhile, 2 in 3 epidemiologists agree that viral mutations will render first-generation vaccines ineffective at preventing the disease by 2022.  88% agreed that low vaccination rates were a leading cause of more vaccine-resistant strains.  The longer widespread vaccination takes, the more time the virus has to transmit and mutate.  By the time most of the world is vaccinated, the virus will have changed enough that another round of mass vaccination could be required.  Unless the second round is far more rapid than the first, this cycle could become a pattern.

In the meantime, COVID-19 does not harm every person equally.  A wide variety of health conditions have been associated with increased risk of infection and severe disease.  These conditions include liver disease, heart conditions, and diabetes.  Those who suffer from increased risk may continue certain precautions long after the general population has abandoned them.  While everyone ought to continue consistently washing hands and wearing masks on certain occasions, at-risk people may want to keep up social distancing and avoid crowds.  Additionally, such patients may pursue additional therapies to stay the development of severe disease should they be infected.

How can an individual be sure of their risk?  Not every person with an indicated health condition will develop severe COVID-19.  It’s possible 1 in 4 adults are incorrectly categorized.  One tool that can fix this problem is a COVID-19 risk test.  This at-home test kit considers 16 comorbidities and genetic markers in determining a person’s risk for developing severe COVID-19.  It improves risk prediction by 25% over standard clinical models, and a user can receive their risk score and detailed report in as low as 5-7 days.