Never Wrong (Even When They Are)

Arthur Solomon, Public Relations ConsultantJob security in the public relations business is an oxymoron. It became more so when ad agencies began to gobble up independent shops and treat them as profit centers.  The lack of jobs also hit our journalist kin who worked at print dailies and mags, when ad money transferred to TV.But all is not lost for grads from cookie-cutter communications schools who want to enter the news business. If you look like a Hollywood central casting hopeful, there are plenty of jobs at TV news outlets. The “eye candy” new hires include both genders in a business where looks are seemingly more important than reportorial skills. But all is not lost if you look like me, and many of my colleagues, when I was a journalist before jumping the fence to PR as newspapers expired. Even if you don’t look like a central casting hire there still is one segment of the communications business where good looks seemingly don’t matter. That facet is punditry, where being wrong is acceptable as long as you deliver flawed opinions in a confident all-it-know manner.Soon, the mid-term elections will be held. For the last year or so, those who follow politics on the cable TV shows have heard hundreds, maybe thousands, of pundits’ opinions. As someone whose first job in PR was with a small  political firm, where I worked on elections ranging from local to national  campaigns – including presidential elections –  my advice is don’t be swayed by pundits’ opinions. Their track record is probably as bad as listening to a tout at the race track. (I should know. Because at my larger second agency job, one of my assignments for more than eight years, until I left to join giant Burson-Marsteller for more than two decades, was to promote a weekly TV show from New York area thoroughbred and harness racing tracks. I also learned a valuable lesson during my journey from a small political agency, to a mid-sized one and then to a giant firm that young PR people and clients should keep in mind: Bigger doesn’t automatically mean better.)There have been many wrong political opinions by so called TV experts during my life. Here are just a few of what I call “The Pundits’ Biggest Mistakes To Date.”

• After Arizona’s U.S. Senator Barry Goldwater was swamped by Lyndon Johnson in the1964 presidential election, pundits said the Republican Party would never recover.
• After President Nixon resigned in 1974, pundits again said the Republican Party was mortally wounded.
• Then as the GOP recovered, pundits opined that while Republicans could win House and Senate seats, they’ll never again win a presidential election.
• For generations, pundits have been predicting Democratic presidential wins because of changing demographics.
• Donald Trump will never get the Republican nomination said the pundits.
• But, they added, if Donald Trump gets the Republican nomination he will be soundly defeated.
• Hillary Clinton will ride a blue wave to become the first woman president was the sure to happen opinion of pundits.
• Ivanka and Jared will be a moderating influence on President Trump. assured the pundits.
• Remember how the pundits said that now that Roger Ailes is gone Fox News Channel will become more moderate?
• Supreme Court Justice Anthony Kennedy will not retire while Trump is president, was the consensus of pundits.
• The Democrats will ride a blue wave to regain the House in the elections, said the pundits until recently.
• The same pundits now say maybe it will not be a blue wave after the latest polls showed the GOP gaining.

The hackneyed phrase “follow the money” doesn’t apply to political TV pundits’ opinions.Their motto seems to be “check the latest polls before speaking.” (But it’s not just the cable news pundits that degrade journalism. Fox hosts Sean Hannity, Tucker Carlson, Laura Ingraham, Jeanine Pirro, Lou Dobbs and others, are leaders in making a mockery on what passes for informative, intelligent commentary on cable news, as does Rachel Maddow and Chris (The Interrupter)Matthews on MSNBC. Too much of what passes for commentary and news on cable TV is nothing more than firebrand rhetoric that has the ability to drive political fanatics to do harmful acts on innocent people and those that they disagree with politically. Instead of being labeled commentators many cable performers should be called demagogic agitators. My advice: If you really want to know what’s going on read the New York Times, Wall Street Journal or other respected print pubs. And never rely on cable TV for the facts and nothing but the facts.)If you read the Wall Street Journal daily, which all people in our business should do, but probably don’t, a page one story on February 27, 2018, exposed the secret of why pundits are never wrong even when they are. Titled “How Pundits Never Get It Wrong: Call a 40% Chance,” explained why pundits in different businesses are correct in their opinions even when they are wrong. The trick is to never to say an opinion is a certainty. Of course, in our ego-centric business, especially those PR crisis experts, admitting fallibility is akin to confessing that our recommendations are often as imperfect as TV political pundits’ predictions.So my advice to communications schools grads who seek either fame or job security is to forget about working for a PR firm or print pub, where obscurity is common and job security is an oxymoron, even if you do good work. Get a job as a TV pundit. There are many options: politics, sports, financial, and advice to the lovelorn. And remember the pundits’ dictum: “Being right when opining is not necessarily a job requirement and never admit that you were wrong.”And if you land a job as a TV pundit, in order to succeed remember the famous line from the Broadway musical “Gypsy” – “speak up Louise,” or whatever your name is. And don’t be shy about opining about subjects that you know nothing about, as people in our know-it-all, ego-centric PR business – especially supervisors – always do.

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About the Author: Arthur Solomon, a former journalist, was a senior VP/senior counselor at Burson-Marsteller, and was responsible for restructuring, managing and playing key roles in some of the most significant national and international sports and non-sports programs. He also traveled internationally as a media adviser to high-ranking government officials. He now is a frequent contributor to public relations publications, consults on public relations projects and is on the Seoul Peace Prize nominating committee. He can be reached at arthursolomon4pr (at) juno.com and artsolomon4pr (at) optimum.net.