The Pundits Finally Got It Right

Arthur Solomon, Public Relations ConsultantFor years, I’ve been writing about the inaccuracy of the opinions of political TV pundits. I now owe them an apology. They finally got one right.Special counsel Robert Mueller handed in his report to the Attorney General on Friday, March 22. There was no doubt that the pundits would be proved correct about the timing of when the report would be handed over to the A.G. Because for months, day after day and hour after hour the TV panelists have been predicting that “this might be the day” that Mueller would hand in his report, proving that if you predict that the same occurrence would happen daily, eventually you might get it correct; then again you might not. Remember how these same pundits daily predicted the election of President Hillary Clinton during the 2016 election campaign.Then beginning on March 23, these same “prescient” cable performers told viewers that the Attorney General would make his findings known at “any moment, so stayed tuned.” Of course, by repeatedly saying “any moment” they again were eventually correct.(Print reporters have to write facts; cableists can fudge their reporting.)Unlike elephants, which are said never to forget, animal experts have concluded that chimpanzees will forget at around 20 seconds and dogs will no longer remember a happening in about two minutes. My observation of the predictions of TV pundits is that they erase their wrong observations from their minds even faster, especially the next time they are asked to opinionize.The five days prior to Mueller proving the pundits correct, reminded me of a Marx Brothers routine. Opinions ranged from “the investigation is close to ending,” “to the investigation has a long way to go,” “to the report is being written,” “to the report might be 200 pages long,” “to it may be only a couple of paragraphs,” “or it may be in bullet form.” The only opinion I didn’t hear is that it might be written in Esperanto.On March 23 and 24^th, I channel hopped among the three major cable political channels. Opinions varied, from the Mueller report proving there was no collusion among Trump or his family, to white collar crimes are difficult to prove, to just because the report didn’t recommend additional indictments doesn’t mean that crimes weren’t committed, to let’s see what the Eastern District of New York and the Manhattan District Attorney’s investigations reveal, to Trump has been clearly vindicated, to Mueller might have referred parts of his investigation to other investigative entities.( Unlike baseball, a person doesn’t need a scorecard to know the pundits; viewers only need to know the channels that carry MSNBC, Fox and CNN.) What I thought was the most ludicrous comment I heard, was by Dan Palmer, a former adviser to Sen. Ted Cruz. On a Fox News special program, ‘The Mueller Report” on March 23, Mr. Palmer said of the investigation, “Clearly, the investigation was really never about finding a foreign threat. It was always about damaging the president,” despite the numerous Trump allies, including some of his advisors, who have been indicted and found guilty for lying about their contacts with Russians during the campaign.But then, on Chris Wallace’s’ March 24 program, former GOP Rep. Jason Chaffetz attempted to dismiss Trump saying he fired former FBI director James Comey because of the Russian investigation, even though the president repeated it on Lester Holt’s NBC program. Good journalist that he is, Wallace wouldn’t let Chaffetz change the subject.President Trump and his TV supporters have been calling the Mueller probe a witch hunt for months. On March 24 they said Mueller vindicated the president. But a couple of days prior to the president’s TV supporters attacking the Democrats for falsifying facts, a March 22 story in The Atlantic reported, ‘Mueller’s investigation has led to 215 criminal charges, 38 indictments or pleas, and five prison sentences so far,” regarding Russia’s role in the 2016 election. The story also said, “The special counsel’s office also unearthed a web of criminality, not always directly related to Russian interference.” (Historical fact: Trump has called the Mueller investigation a witch hunt. But more Americans and Russians were indicted during the Mueller investigation than were found guilty (16, 19 or 20, depending on your source) during the actual infamous Salem witch hunt trials in Massachusetts during 1692-93.) Everyone is entitled to an opinion. The problem with TV pundits is that they act as if they are experts, when, in reality, their accuracy is more similar to race track touts and stock market predictors. Not exactly known for their accurateness.There are pundits who are regular employees of cable TV networks, and there are pundits whose sole job is to comment on the Mueller investigation. But all should be assured of continued employment because, according to press reports, there are still about 16 separate investigations of President Trump that the cable political channels will have their pundits comment on. (Unlike the financial pundits’ disclaimer of “Past Performance Is No Guarantee of Future Results,” the overwhelming majority of political pundits’ predictions are a guarantee of future results: They’re wrong.)There’s an important take-a-way that people in our business can learn from watching the pundits on the cable political shows. Those whose opinions were most logical were the former federal prosecutors and intelligence officials, whose comments were based on their actual government experience. They had their reputations to protect. They functioned as “expert witnesses,” using facts to back up their opinions. They actually knew the ins-and-outs of their subjects. The less believable pundits (along with the hosts and cable reporters) were the regular program talent. They functioned, for the most part, as, well, hired performers or journalists-in-training, if you can call what passes for reporting on cable journalism. (Of course, even in a business with so many permanent sub-par journalists, some actually know the facts of what they are analyzing. My favorites are Jeffrey Toobin, a staff writer at the New Yorker, who doubles as chief legal analyst for CNN, and Pete Williams, whose beats include the Department of Justice and the Supreme Court for MSNBC.)The lesson that should be learned is that when using a spokesperson to promote a product or point of view, don’t use a hired gun-slinger, known on cable TV as pundits, who will take on any assignment that comes with a paycheck. Instead, use a nationally- respected bona fide expert, whose reputation is respected by all segments of the media. The quality of the TV programs that will book the individual will increase, as will the print pubs that will interview the person.And now, as a self-anointed pundit I will confidentially predict the following:

• When history is written, the Trump administration will be remembered for providing jobs for criminal defense attorneys, TV pundits, praising dictators, being loyal to persons accused of sexual crimes, and setting a presidential record for lying. And, of course, having the Trump name removed from buildings because people who live in them are ashamed to live in a building named  “Trump" and Republican pundits will say that Trump was correct when he said there was no collusion and the investigation was a witch hunt, and Democratic pundits will say the Mueller investigation was limited in scope; let’s see what the other numerous investigations uncover, especially the Southern District of New York fed probe.

Certainly history will show that my above predictions will be more accurate than those of professional TV pundits, as will be the following ones:

• Just because the Mueller investigation has concluded, doesn’t mean Trump’s legal problems are over, regardless of what his defenders say. In New York alone, investigations are ongoing by the Eastern District of New York (federal), the New York County District Attorney (Manhattan), and the New York State Attorney General. In addition, there are more than a dozen additional state and federal investigations in various states. It’s safe to say that the final TV script has not been written.
• What ever is released will result in praise or condemnation by politicians and TV pundits.
• TV lawyers will discuss, without knowing the facts behind the disclosures, what it means for President Trump, his family and his business.
• And the various investigations will continue throughout Trump’s presidency.

Regardless of how much of the Mueller report will remain secret, there is one truth that is always evident: On cable political TV, there is no wall, only a broken fence, that separates opinion from factual journalism.The farcical TV shows that camouflage themselves as breaking news programs will continue despite the reality of what the Mueller Report actually contains, and the pundits will pretend that they have the answers until after the Trump presidency has ended.Because as Yogi Berra is alleged to have said, “It ain’t over till it’s over.”

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About the Author: Arthur Solomon, a former journalist, was a senior VP/senior counselor at Burson-Marsteller, and was responsible for restructuring, managing and playing key roles in some of the most significant national and international sports and non-sports programs. He also traveled internationally as a media adviser to high-ranking government officials. He now is a frequent contributor to public relations publications, consults on public relations projects and is on the Seoul Peace Prize nominating committee. He can be reached at arthursolomon4pr (at) juno.com and artsolomon4pr(at)optimum.net.