How Much Do Endorsements and Influencers Matter?

Taylor Swift is all in for Vice President Kamala Harris.  Elon Musk is on board for former President Donald Trump.  Meanwhile, former President George W. Bush is opting to stay on the sidelines.

In what is shaping up to be the closest presidential contest since 1960 in which experts feel that the election this November will be decided along the margins, a fair question to ask is how much do endorsements like these really matter?

To find out, CommPRO asked a number of journalists and academics for their thoughts.

"The value of an endorsement depends on who is making it and what the circumstances are surrounding it," says Richard Greb, a longtime reporter with Reuters, the Associated Press and Chicago Tribune.  "If a given candidate is well ahead in the polls, endorsements have less impact whereas in a close race like the one we're in now, they could make a difference."

As an example, Greb cites the Harris endorsement from former Rep. Liz Cheney which he believes could have a significant impact on suburban women, a key voting block.

"On the other hand, Elon Musk, who is disliked by many Americans, could have a negative influence on voters thinking about voting for Trump," Greb maintains.

He further adds that since Taylor Swift has millions of followers, her endorsement of Kamala Harris along with encouraging young people to register and vote could boost the vice president's numbers with that demographic.

Mark Perlman, an adjunct public relations professor at Columbia College Chicago, disagrees about the ultimate impact of the Swift endorsement.

"Swifties will be influenced to vote for Harris because of their allegiance to Taylor," he observes but adds that factor will be mitigated by the large percentage who are not eligible to vote.

Perlman believes, however, that the vice president can still attract young voters through her strong presence on social media.

"Just look at her participation on platforms such as TikTok, X and podcasts, with millions of followers," he says.

John Dempsey, retired news director at Chicago's iconic WLS-AM, believes that whether political endorsements still matter is a subject very much up for debate.

Dempsey maintains that they can be successful for the same reasons that celebrities endorse certain products.

"The companies behind those products know that celebrities have a certain influence over members of the public," he states, "and if the product is good enough for an admired celebrity, it is good enough for their fans."

When it comes to political endorsements, Dempsey states that endorsements from other political figures can matter to voters who are engaged in the process and who follow political news. 

"If they are not following the news, then I don't see a political endorsement carrying the same weight," he says, adding that the exception would be if it is an endorsement from a political figure who would not be expected to endorse that candidate.   

As an example, he cites the Liz Cheney endorsement of Vice President Harris.

"In a normal election, Republican Cheney would not be expected to back a liberal Democrat like Kamala Harris," Dempsey says. "However this year she is endorsing Harris, because Cheney feels that Donald Trump represents a fundamental threat to American democracy."  

According to Dempsey, having backing from people like Cheney, or from any one of the many other prominent Republicans who have endorsed Harris, could give some Republican voters who don't like Trump a permission structure to cross over and vote for a Democrat.

In terms of endorsements from celebrities, he believes that they can have an influence on so-called low-information voters.    

"The endorsement of Kamala Harris by pop star Taylor Swift is expected to build her support among young women who form the bulk of Swift's fan base," Dempsey says.

"By the same token, the endorsement of Donald Trump by billionaire Elon Musk is expected to help Trump with voters who admire Musk, either for his success in business or for his reputation as a rebel who defies conventional standards."

Ernest Wiggins, an independent scholar who is professor emeritus at the University of South Carolina's School of Journalism, feels that Donald Trump's enormous impact on national politics, in which he has changed the way we view everything from the office of the president to the voting process, has also influenced the power of endorsements.

"I don't think it would be an exaggeration to say Trump's iconoclasm has affected how the public processes information, and, in that respect, who is credible or believable," he says.

Wiggins points out that researchers tell us that some political endorsements work sometimes on some people. 

"Celebrities can move their voting fans, but political parties have been shown to hold the most sway over their members, even if the positions being promoted by the party are identical to those of the opponent," he maintains. 

Wiggins suspects that in this age of 24/7 social media influencers, candidate endorsements would be more meaningful to an individual influencer's fans, with or without the influencer's justification, than with anyone else.

Asked about the impact of newspaper endorsements in particular, Wiggins notes that while many regional and national outlets continue the practice, it remains to be seen how these endorsements affect voter behavior.

Greb believes that the decline of newspapers, caused by the digital revolution and the growth of alternate media platforms, has diluted the weight of their endorsements.

He notes, for example, that editorials from both the New York Times and Los Angeles Times which strongly condemned Trump and warned against his re-election, hardly moved the needle.

"That is  a far cry from 1974 when the Chicago Tribune's editorial urging then President Richard M. Nixon to resign over the Watergate scandal sent shock waves to the White House," he recalls, having been a young Tribune reporter at the time.

Overall, Greb believes that it is difficult to say with any certainty what impact, pro or con, endorsements will have on this year's election.

Dempsey agrees, but emphasizes that the key factor in winning elections is actually getting people off the couch and to the polling place to vote.

"Despite the glitz of high-profile endorsements, the winning candidate will be the one who can persuade more of their voters to actually go out and cast a ballot, and research shows that low-information voters also tend to vote less frequently than those who are more knowledgeable about the issues."