Voters Chose Trump as Economic Fears Drowned Out Moral Arguments in 2024 Election
As postmortems are conducted and epitaphs are written on the presidential election, the clear outcome is the majority of voters chose Donald Trump to be the 47th president over Vice President Kamala Harris.
Democrats are shocked, disappointed and confused. Trump voters delighted.
The early punditry and analysis of the election provides a broad range of reasons why voters chose Trump, despite his baggage.
James Carville, the political strategist, famously prioritized the top message of the Clinton campaign “It’s the economy, stupid,” underscoring the primacy of the pocketbook on political decisions.
In the run up to November 5, in his doomsday descriptions of the country and state of U.S. cities, President-elect Trump positioned the economy as a disaster.
Writ large, this does not compute. Inflation, a by-product of COVID-19 stimulus, is almost back to early-2021 levels, and unemployment and gas prices are low. The stock market has been robust, and the U.S. has been outperforming most other economies.
Wit small, at the level of the kitchen-table economy, the impact of the cost of food, housing, transportation, was the signal largely lost in the noise – albeit of vital importance and consequence – of foreign policy, global warming, culture wars and the candidates’ rhetoric.
Given the long-term corrosive impact of inflation on grocery prices and continued high interest rates, Harris and Biden were seen by many voters as culpable.
It’s clear that Trump’s discordantly-tuned messaging resonated with his audiences. And, that the Democrats focus on existential threats to the Republic meant that Harris’ messaging on the financial challenges faced by individuals did not crystalize in the ether of the campaign or voters’ minds.
Whether you are a communicator, corporate communications or agency leader, entrepreneur or corporate CEO, it’s often hard to separate signal from noise, especially among the complexity of election or communications campaigns. All too often the primary drivers of behavior only becomes apparent once choices are made.
As communicators we have to work to identify signals which have the most significant impact on client or audience choices if we are to achieve our goals. Since they are often obscured by noise and cannot be separated entirely from other dimensions of decision making, this is no simple matter.
The election result should serve as a powerful reminder that moral and big picture arguments will often be “trumped” by issues that impact people in the here and now. This applies as much to elections as it does to communications and business in general.
