Is TikTok's Demise Imminent? Here's What Happens If the Ban Sticks

With TikTok’s sell-by date potentially just days away, the fate of the beloved social platform — at least in the U.S. — is still up in the air. The hearing on Jan. 10 suggested that the Supreme Court is leaning toward upholding the ban, unless parent company Bytedance divests the app to a U.S. entity. The Supreme Court hasn’t announced when they’ll issue a final ruling, but with the tight timeline it could come any day.

In the days since the oral arguments, reports have filtered out about potential buyers including Mr. Beast (although it's likely his post on X is just a joke) and Elon Musk (not hard to believe he’d want to add another shiny social network to his portfolio). TikTok has denied the latter, calling the possibility of a Musk takeover “pure fiction.” 

There are myriad implications if the ban is upheld — not only for consumers, but the influencers and brands that generate revenue on TikTok, not to mention competing social networks that have seen TikTok skyrocket in popularity and time spent, especially among younger generations. 

Case in point: 44% of people ages 18-24 say they go to TikTok first for video content, according to The Measure’s survey, powered by MX8 Labs, of 1,000+ consumers over the age of 18.

• That’s notably higher than the 26% across all ages who report visiting TikTok first for video. 

• This age group is a huge consumer of video, with 27% reporting they watch two to four hours of social video content A DAY, and another 23% saying they watch over four hours daily. 

If TikTok is banned, where will people turn? It may be easy to assume Instagram, since its Reels feature is quite similar to TikTok’s feed. 

Data suggests that YouTube, which also has a competing product in Shorts, is the one waiting in the wings. 

• Across all ages of our survey, YouTube ranks as the first destination for social video (38%).

• While YouTube’s share is lower for 18-24 year olds (32%), it outperforms Instagram (16%), with Facebook cited by a mere 3% of this cohort as their top social video source. 

• On the flip side, Facebook wins for people over the age of 65 (40%), with YouTube in second (37%).